📑 Research Notes for 2023-02-13
This week, we look at upward revisions in previous CPI reports, increasing bets on a terminal Fed Funds rate of 6%, Russian preparations for a Donbas assault, and the massive disconnect in equities.
We conduct extensive investment research and share the most interesting content that we come across every week. Here is a curated list of this week’s top observations.
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Revisions Show U.S. Consumer Prices A Bit Firmer Than Previously Reported.
U.S. monthly consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated, and data for the prior two months were also revised up, which some economists said raised the risk of higher inflation readings in the months ahead.
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Traders Are Starting to Put Big Money on the Fed Going to 6%.
A shift in sentiment on Federal Reserve policy is emerging in interest-rate options, where several big wagers on the central bank’s benchmark rate reaching 6% — nearly a percentage point higher than the current consensus — have popped up this week.
🔗 Source
Russia Prepares 2,000 Tanks and 300,000 Troops for ‘Huge Invasion’ in Donbas.
Russia has prepared almost 2,000 tanks and 300,000 soldiers for a renewed offensive to seize Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in the coming weeks, a Ukrainian intelligence officer has warned.
🔗 Source
Massive Disconnects in Market.
"The US equity market is fighting the Fed big time," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO Lisa Shalett says during an interview on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
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Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap
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Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®
Joseph is the founder and a managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, as well as a CFA® Charterholder.
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