📑 Research Notes for 2022-04-04
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📑 Research Notes for 2022-04-04
This week, we look at the inverted yield curve, the VIX vs. the MOVE, Japanese Central Bank actions, and the Fed's warning of a housing bubble.
We conduct extensive investment research and share the most interesting content that we come across every week. Here is a curated list of this week’s top observations.
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Short Video of the Week
🔗 Source
Bonds Flash Recession Sign as Yield Curve Inverts
(Bloomberg)
The U.S. two-year yield briefly exceeded the 10-year Tuesday for the first time since 2019, inverting yet another segment of the Treasury curve. This reinforced the view that Federal Reserve rate increases may cause a recession.
🔗 Source
The Changing Dynamics of Risk Between Stocks and Bonds.
(Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views)
There is a large divergence between the VIX stock and MOVE bond volatility indices in the last month. The VIX has usually shown more volatility of volatility and larger short-term spikes. The MOVE index is more stable and will not see large spikes. The Ukraine-Russia War forced both indices higher, but the MOVE is now approaching highs while the VIX has fallen to levels seen last year.
🔗 Source
Bank of Japan Seen Winning Bond Market Battle
(Bloomberg)
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is sticking to his guns when it comes to capping long-term bond yields even as the central hank launched a 3-day bond buying program that has been adding steam to the yen's recent slide.
🔗 Source
Federal Reserve of Dallas issues warning over "brewing U.S. housing bubble.”
(CBS)
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is signaling that the property market is showing "signs of a brewing U.S. housing bubble."
🔗 Source
Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap
(FinViz)
🔗 Source
Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®
Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors and a CFA® Charterholder.
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