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Grouped By Asset Class

Grouped By Sector and Region

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

(3) The investment performance results presented herein have been prepared based on our best-efforts using information available to us and is meant to be a measure of relative performance amongst investment risk factors. However, the current manual aspects of performance reporting means that these results may contain unintended errors, omissions, or inaccuracies despite our diligent efforts to ensure their accuracy.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at joseph@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

If you qualify, you’ll get access to monthly updates and exclusive content on global asset class movements and financial markets.

Subscribe to us on LinkedIn

Grouped By Asset Class

Grouped By Sector and Region

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at joseph@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

If you qualify, you’ll get access to monthly updates and exclusive content on global asset class movements and financial markets.

Subscribe to us on LinkedIn

Grouped By Asset Class

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Sector and Region

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at joseph@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Grouped By Asset Class

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Sector and Region

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with me on LinkedIn or X.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Grouped By Asset Class

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Sector and Region

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with me on LinkedIn or X.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Grouped By Asset Class

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Sector and Region

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Grouped By Duration Exposure

Source: Google Finance

(1) Volatility is measured as the annualized daily standard deviation of a security’s return over the past year.

(2) Represents price returns of each asset class or segment as measured by each proxy ETF. Does not include dividend returns. Past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with me on LinkedIn or X.

🔗 More about us.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Recent Pause in Interest Rate Hikes by US Federal Reserve Was Valid Decision.

The recent pause in interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve was a valid decision, according to Sandalwood Securities' David Kotok. He said the Fed had not guided the market well and had chosen not to surprise it. However, Kotok said the pause was not the end of the hiking cycle, and that the market was becoming more realistic about the Fed's outlook. He added that the Fed had every reason to continue to hike, and that core CPI was very sticky and following the trend of wages.

🔗 Source

Yields on Cash, Bonds and Equities Are The Same For The First Time Ever.

The yield on three-month US Treasury bills was 5.3 per cent this week after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at between 5 and 5.25 per cent, but signalled that most of its officials expected a further two rate rises this year.  That is the same level as the expected 12-month forward earnings yield across the S&P 500, which has risen by more than 15 per cent since January. Although it is one of the best half-years for the index in two decades, it has left investors nervous about the potential for future returns.

🔗 Source

The Return of El Nino: Impacts on Global Economy and Climate Change.

The return of El Nino could lead to significant impacts on the global economy, particularly on commodities such as agriculture. This could result in inflationary pressure, adding to the existing inflationary pressure caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Higher temperatures associated with El Nino could also exacerbate climate change, leading to devastating consequences for vulnerable economies. The use of coal to fuel irrigation pipes for agriculture during hot events also contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.

🔗 Source

Drought in Central US Corn Belt Sparks Rally in Soybean Futures.

Drought is developing throughout the central US Corn Belt, with 57% of US corn areas and 51% of US soybean areas experiencing some degree of drought, according to the USDA. This has led to a rally in foreign and soybean futures traded on the CME Group, with traders focusing almost exclusively on weather. A wetter forecast could result in massive selling pressure, while a continuation of the dry pattern could result in further upside. Weather is typically the biggest driver of grain prices in a given year.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Central Banks Set to Announce Policies This Week.

This week is set to be busy for central banks, with the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank all announcing policies. The Fed is considering a potential pause in rate hikes, with some governors arguing that more data needs to be assessed before any further action is taken. The Dot Plot, which outlines economic projections, will also be revised. The Bank of Japan is unlikely to make any policy tweaks, despite higher-than-expected inflation. The European Central Bank is expected to announce more rate hikes, while the People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a stable policy stance.

🔗 Source

Saudi Arabia Pledges to Cut Oil Output by One Million Barrels a Day in Bid to Boost Prices.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut oil output by an additional one million barrels a day from July, taking its production to the lowest level in several years. The move comes after previous cuts failed to deliver a sustained price rally. The rest of the OPEC+ group offered no additional action but pledged to keep their existing cuts until the end of 2024. Oil prices have been hammered by a number of factors, including the softer economic outlook, especially in China. The near-term price is dependent on the test of wills between stability-seeking Saudi Arabia and bearish paper traders.

🔗 Source

US Homeowners Lose $5,400 in Equity in Q1 2021, but Average Home Equity Still High at $274,000: CoreLogic Report.

A new report shows that US homeowners have lost an average of $5,400 in equity in the first quarter of this year compared to a year ago. However, CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp notes that the decline is only marginal and that average home equity is currently at $274,000 per mortgage borrower, up almost $100,000 from pre-pandemic levels. Hepp also states that home prices are increasing again, with strong monthly gains in early spring, and that all markets are seeing pretty strong price gains once again. The decline in equity is more pronounced in Western states due to higher prices and affordability issues, while Florida's home price growth has remained elevated. Hepp notes that the current environment of low mortgage rates is recent and that people need to get further away from the three percent rate for them to start feeling comfortable again.

🔗 Source

Housing Bust Hits Small-Time Investors as Tenants Stop Paying and Eviction Bans Expire.

Thousands of small-time investors who bought rental homes after the housing crisis are facing a reckoning as tenants stop paying and eviction bans expire. Many of these investors are now struggling to pay their mortgages and property taxes, and some are being forced to sell their homes at a loss. The situation is particularly dire for those who bought homes in lower-income neighborhoods, where tenants have been hit hardest by the pandemic's economic fallout. Experts warn that the crisis could lead to a wave of foreclosures and further exacerbate the country's affordable housing shortage.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

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Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Senate Passes Bipartisan Debt Limit Deal, Awaits Biden's Signature.

The Senate has passed a debt limit deal with bipartisan support, which is expected to be signed by President Biden to avoid a catastrophic default. The president is set to address the nation about the deal and its importance in preserving vital programs. While the deal is a promising step towards fiscal sanity, there is still more work to be done to rein in excessive spending. The agreement does not limit emergency spending, which was a concern for some GOP Senators.

🔗 Source

U.S. Adds 339,000 Jobs in May, But Wage Growth Decelerates.

The US added 339,000 jobs in May, beating expectations and indicating a strong labour market. However, wage growth decelerated, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% and the year-over-year increase coming in at 4.3%, lower than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, with more people losing jobs than gaining them. Professional and business services saw the largest job gains, with 64,000 new positions, while manufacturing lost 2,000 jobs. Construction added 25,000 jobs, reflecting a strong housing market.

🔗 Source

Narrow Market Breadth Poses Risk for Volatility and Correlation.

According to RBC's Wu Silverman, narrow market breadth is a problem as it affects volatility, correlation, and options. The market's narrowness can lead to violent rotations under the surface, despite the appearance of resilience. While there is potential for increased risk appetite and broader market play, the trigger for this change is questionable. FOMO is a potential trigger, as it exacerbates momentum and magnifies through options, leading to outsized moves. This phenomenon is not limited to Nvidia but can be seen in other stocks, particularly in Mega cap tech over the last five years.

🔗 Source

China's Manufacturing PMI Hits Weakest Point Since December.

China's manufacturing PMI has hit its weakest point since December, indicating weak demand for manufactured goods both domestically and externally. The country has been focusing on the services sector to recover, but even this area is showing a slowing pace of expansion. Optimism for the second half of the year is coming from expectations that the government will do more to counter the data. Weakness in the property sector is also a concern, with the PMI for mantles industries below 45 and the PMI for property services contracting. The overall weakness in the property sector is alarming for the government, which will need to do more to stabilize the market. While the 5% growth target is still achievable, the PMI is a more real underlying measure of sequential momentum, which is weakening.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Biden-McCarthy Debt Agreement Brings Relief to Markets, Uncertainty Looms.

The Biden-McCarthy debt agreement is expected to provide relief to the markets, with a potential one percent increase in US shares. However, there may be some uncertainty as to whether it will pass through Congress. The relief rally may not be enduring as fundamental issues such as negative investor sentiment, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the risk of recession still remain. Additionally, the deal caps government spending and there will be a liquidity withdrawal as the Fed rebuilds its deposit at the treasury. The markets may still experience a rough ride over the next few months.

🔗 Source

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson: Bear Market Continues Despite Recent Tech Rally.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says that despite the recent tech rally, the bear market is continuing. He notes that the market has been driven by increased liquidity and a weaker dollar, but the fundamental case does not support current stock prices. Wilson predicts that the second half of the year will be choppier and likely downward for the index. He also points out that the rally has been driven by what people want to buy, such as AI and technological revolution, rather than the old economy stocks.

🔗 Source

Economist David Rosenberg Warns of AI Bubble and Recession Risks.

Economist David Rosenberg warns that the current boom in artificial intelligence (AI) could collapse like the dot-com stocks of the late 1990s. He notes that while there is a price bubble in the sector, there is also a real impact on the economy, and that the internet was a game changer for productivity. However, he warns that the current situation is distracting investors from recession risks, and that the Fed may be looking at the AI boom as a major productivity accelerator, which could work towards their anti-inflation objectives. Rosenberg also notes that the three most economically sensitive areas of the market, banks, consumer discretionary, and transports, are down more than 30% from the cycle highs and are behaving in the same pattern as they have going into the past four recessions.

🔗 Source

Cathie Wood Expresses Concerns About Nvidia's Future Due to Cyclical and Competitive Risks.

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has expressed concerns about Nvidia's future due to cyclical and competitive risks. While Wood has been positive on Nvidia in the past, she notes that the company's current valuation of 25 times sales is high compared to other AI-oriented stocks like Tesla and UiPath, which are at six times sales. Wood also highlights the cyclical risks associated with shortages of GPUs and competition from companies like Tesla and Google, who are developing their own chips for specialized models. Despite these concerns, Nvidia still meets ARK Invest's minimum hurdle rate of return and remains in some of their specialized portfolios.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Risks of Shrinking Liquidity and Growth in the U.S. and Europe.

The liquidity outlook in the US and Europe has shifted from a favorable scenario to one with higher risks of shrinking liquidity and growth. Recent developments indicate a decline in liquidity, which has significant implications for various financial sectors. The regional banking sector in the US is experiencing stress, leading to shrinking liquidity. In Europe, liquidity trends are also pointing towards a substantial shrinkage. Defensive allocation strategies are becoming increasingly attractive as liquidity levels decrease. Sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities are expected to outperform high-risk sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. As the reporting season concludes, the timing may be right to reposition portfolios defensively, which could include increasing exposure to bonds.

🔗 Source

PIMCO Warns of Potentially Higher Yields Amid Debt Standoff.

PIMCO's Schneider believes that the current debt standoff is not causing significant stress in the market, but fears could be exacerbated to the tune of hundreds of basis points, if not more in T-bill yields. He predicts yields in excess of 7-10%. Schneider advises investors to focus on cash management and finding opportunities to earn liquidity premiums to get returns of 5.5-6.5%. He also warns that once the debt ceiling is resolved, liquidity in the overall system will be somewhat diminished as new issuance comes to the market and the treasury needs to rebuild its cash balance.

🔗 Source

US Treasury to Issue Debt after Ceiling is Resolved, Risking Painful Liquidity Squeeze.

The US Treasury could issue up to $1 trillion in T-bills in the coming months, which could cause a painful liquidity squeeze in the market. This comes as Congress faces a deadline to raise the debt limit, which could lead to a default on US debt if not addressed. The Treasury is expected to use its cash balance to fund the government until October, but after that, it will need to borrow more money to keep the government running. If Congress fails to raise the debt limit, it could lead to a catastrophic default on US debt, which would have severe consequences for the global economy.

🔗 Source

Foreign Investors Continue to Buy Japanese Equities Amid Tensions Between China and US.

Foreign investors have bought Japanese equities for the sixth consecutive week, with the news that Warren Buffett increased his investment in Japanese trading houses in April being a major catalyst. Japan's unique position in the intensifying tension between China and the US is also attracting investment, as some investors shift away from China due to disappointing economic data. The sustainability of this trend is uncertain, with some questioning whether it is a fad or a long-term trend.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

Bond Traders Bet on Biggest Fed Shift in Decades to Address Credit Risks.

Bond traders are betting on the biggest shift in Federal Reserve policy in decades as they anticipate the central bank will start to address credit risks. The Fed has been buying corporate bonds and exchange-traded funds since last year to support the economy during the pandemic, but traders are now expecting the central bank to start reducing its purchases and raising interest rates to address inflation and credit risks. This shift could have significant implications for the bond market and the broader economy.

🔗 Source

Private Equity Firms Brace for Wave of Bankruptcies in Coming Years.

Private equity firms are facing a wave of bankruptcies in the coming years as the companies they have invested in struggle to repay their debts. This is due to a combination of factors, including high levels of debt and declining revenues. The firms may also face increased scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers, who are concerned about the impact of private equity on workers and communities.

🔗 Source

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Warns of US Recession and "Hard Landing".

Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller has warned that the US is on the brink of a recession and could experience a "hard landing" due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. He believes that the central bank's decision to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time has led to a "massive misallocation of resources" and could result in a severe economic downturn. Druckenmiller also expressed concern about the country's growing debt levels and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.

🔗 Source

Investors Should Wait and Get Paid Amidst Trading Range.

Emily Roland, head of capital markets research at John Hancock Investment Management, says that stocks and bonds have been in a trading range while the bulls and bears have been duking it out. She advises investors to wait and get paid as the volatility plays out, and to own higher quality areas of the market with great balance sheets, lots of cash on their balance sheets, and a limited need for the capital markets to grow. Roland believes that a recession will unfold later this year, and that owning quality, embracing bonds, and owning defense is the name of the game.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

🔗 Source

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen Warns of Potential Default by June 1.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the Treasury's debt limit measures may be exhausted by June 1, potentially leading to a default on some of its obligations. Yellen has called on Congress to raise the debt limit, but negotiations between Republicans and Democrats have been difficult. The market had previously expected the X date to be in July or August, but Yellen's letter suggests it could be as early as June 1. A new round of tax payments comes into the Treasury on June 15, which could restore some of the coffers.

🔗 Source

Federal Reserve Suggests End to Tightening Cycle with 25 Basis Point Rate Hike.

The Federal Reserve has raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, but also suggested that the longest and steepest tightening cycle since the 1980s may be coming to an end. The statement dropped wording anticipating additional policy firming and instead said the committee will closely monitor incoming information to determine the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate. The economic summary notes a modest pace of growth in the first quarter, robust job gains, and still elevated inflation. The committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks and there is no change in the pace of QT, which is still capped at $95 billion a month. The statement suggests a possible pause in the tightening cycle.

🔗 Source

Half of America's Banks Potentially Insolvent.

Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. A Hoover Institution report by Prof Seru and a group of banking experts calculates that more than 2,315 US banks are currently sitting on assets worth less than their liabilities. Somebody will have to take those losses.

🔗 Source

US Treasury Launches First Buyback Program Since 2000.

The US Treasury Department has announced its first buyback program since 2000, which will involve purchasing up to $7 billion in outstanding debt. The move is aimed at reducing the amount of outstanding debt and is seen as a signal that the government is taking steps to address concerns about rising inflation and interest rates. The buyback program is expected to begin on August 17 and run through September 14.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

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Q1 2023: A Continued Rebound for Risk Assets.

During the first quarter of 2023, the equity market continued to bounce back, with technology and consumer discretionary stocks leading the way. However, the broader market and small-cap stocks did not participate as strongly. On the other hand, bonds and investment-grade credit saw modest gains as people worried about a deflationary event caused by bank failures. Commodities ended the quarter with noticeable losses due to recession concerns as well, while the US Dollar index remained mostly unchanged.

BRICS Challenge the Western-Led Hegemony.

The geopolitical landscape has been undergoing significant shifts as emerging powers challenge the established order dominated by the United States and its Western allies. One of the most significant developments in this regard has been the formation of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) as a new power bloc. The BRICS countries collectively represent a significant share of the world's population, resources, and economic potential, and are increasingly asserting themselves on the global stage.

As part of this shift, Saudi Arabia and Brazil, two countries that have traditionally been close U.S. allies, have begun to tilt towards China. This is driven in part by economic considerations, as China is now the largest trading partner for both countries. In the case of Saudi Arabia, this has led to a strategic partnership between the two countries, with China investing heavily in Saudi infrastructure and energy projects. Similarly, Brazil has sought to deepen ties with China, particularly in the agricultural sector, where it hopes to increase exports to China.

These developments have significant implications for the balance of power in the world. While the United States remains the world's preeminent superpower, the rise of the BRICS and the shifting alliances of key players like Saudi Arabia and Brazil suggest that the geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex and multipolar. As such, it is likely that we will see a more diverse range of power centers emerge in the coming years, with China playing an increasingly prominent role.

Political Pushback Starting Against Fed Policies.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, raising interest rates by 25 bps in March, and continuing “quantitative tightening.” These policies are starting to be met with criticism from the general public and policymakers. Luigi Zingales, a professor at the University of Chicago, is calling for an independent commission to investigate the Federal Reserve's handling of inflation and the banking crisis. He believes that the Fed has failed to see both coming and that the banking system cannot function with rates of 4% or higher. Zingales suggests that the Fed needs to soften interest rates and find ways to soften the banking crisis, especially for small and medium-sized businesses. He also emphasizes the importance of regional banks in lending to small businesses and minorities.

The Federal Reserve has implemented economic policies that could put pressure on President Biden's administration. Powell and other Fed officials have signaled that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates and hold them at elevated levels, which could slow down economic growth and potentially harm employment figures for the United States, causing political challenges for Democrats. Last quarter, we talked about Triffen’s Dilemma, which is a conflict of interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as the global reserve currency. This theory predicts that the United States will eventually sacrifice the dollar for the stability of its domestic markets. 

Bank of Japan Sees Governor Change.

The leadership change at the Bank of Japan is a historic event coming at a consequential time for global markets across asset classes. Governor Kuroda's unprecedented decade-long tenure of non-stop radical easing and policy experimentation may be coming to an end, and the keys of the world's duration anchor will be handed over to incoming Governor Ueda. This change will result in the weight of the global bond markets and rates markets, as the bank will undergo the most important leadership change in the modern era of modern central banking.

We have repeatedly highlighted the unusual situation of the Bank of Japan, as it is the final major central bank that is still engaging in quantitative easing. A change in policy to allow for higher interest rates may influence global assets, as a financially restrictive central bank has effectively pushed most Japanese investments abroad. If the BOJ expands its yield curve control range, domestic assets may become appealing enough to prompt the sale of foreign assets held by Japanese capital and their subsequent repatriation. Nevertheless, the BOJ should exercise caution when reducing its supportive policies, as increased debt servicing costs could lead to fiscal consequences.

Credit Crunch and Recession Loom in the U.S.

Two major banks, previously seen as safe depositories, have failed, leading to tighter lending standards and increased credit crunch risk. The SVB First Republic banking crisis could lead to a credit event and a deflationary spiral in the economy. A credit event occurs when confidence in the financial system is shaken, causing investors to demand higher interest rates for loans and credit or become reluctant to lend money altogether. This results in a decrease in the money supply, leading to a deflationary spiral. In this scenario, the decline in lending and borrowing activities, coupled with lower consumer spending, can cause a drop in risk asset prices and economic activity. We have already seen signs of this occurring, with M2 Money Supply Growth reaching historically negative territory.

However, U.S. stocks have remain ebullient throughout the quarter, possibly due to some clients' belief that the Fed/FDIC bailout of depositors is a form of quantitative easing. The money supply is likely to continue falling sharply with these bank failures. It is of note that stocks and bonds now are exhibiting a more traditional, negative correlation, with stocks going down when rates fall and vice versa. The equity risk premium (ERP) remains subdued, however, making risk/reward in U.S. equities unattractive, in our opinion.

Current Outlook and Positioning

Although the market has rallied this quarter, we remain less constructive on risk assets such as equities, and more constructive on assets that pay a fixed rate, such as short duration fixed income. We believe that deflation is now the more likely risk, although we believe there to be volatility within the inflation figures. Investment grade credit remains more attractive than high yield debt, as we anticipate credit spreads to widen in the event of a credit crunch.

The U.S. Dollar continues to remain weaken, so non-U.S. assets look attractive. While we like emerging market equities as a whole, we prefer picking country by country, as geopolitical risks remain elevated. From an economic sector standpoint, we have become more defensive, favoring non-cyclical stocks and those with less leverage and solid balance sheets. We also continue to hold an allocation to precious metals, within each strategy's risk parameters.

Written by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and a managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, as well as a CFA® Charterholder.

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Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

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Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

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First Republic Bank To Be Sold to JPMorgan.

First Republic Bank will be taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase after rescue attempts fail. The bank's stock price has fallen 80% since March, and despite a $30 billion infusion from larger banks, it lost 43% of its value on Friday, closing at $3.51 a share. The Federal Reserve has taken some responsibility for the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in a report released on Friday outlined regulations and oversights, but acknowledged that it could take years to implement any changes.

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Fitch Ratings Downgrades France's Debt Rating to AA-.

Fitch Ratings has downgraded France's debt rating from AA to AA-, citing weaker fiscal metrics and social movements that could put President Macron's agenda at risk. This is the first downgrade since the adoption of the highly contested pension reform, which sparked nationwide strikes and further destabilized the economy. However, Fitch revised the outlook to stable, predicting that the French economy will grow by 0.8%, just short of the forecasted 1.1%. France's Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire, dismissed Fitch's concerns, claiming that recent reforms would boost the economic model.

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Stock Market To Catch Up to Looming Recession.

Matt Maley from Miller Taback believes that the stock market will soon catch up to the credit crunch and looming recession. While systemic issues are under control, there is a problem on the economic side with big changes in deposits. Many people are choosing to invest in money market funds and T-bill rates, which means banks have less money and are pulling in the horns with lending. Maley believes that when credit contracts, a recession is inevitable and the stock market will eventually catch up to this realization. He also suggests that the regional bank trade is not safe to get into right now and that a washout is needed before great opportunities arise.

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Elon Musk Predicts Global Financial System Collapse, Advocates for Bitcoin.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has made a dire prediction about the economy, stating that the current global financial system is on the verge of collapse. He believes that the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the inevitable downfall of fiat currencies and that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are a better alternative. Musk has been a vocal supporter of Bitcoin and recently invested $1.5 billion in the cryptocurrency through Tesla. However, some experts have criticized Musk's prediction, stating that the global financial system is more resilient than he suggests.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

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Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

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Renminbi's Share of Trade Finance Doubles Amid Ukraine War.

The renminbi's share of trade finance has more than doubled since the start of the Ukraine war. The currency's share by value of the market rose from less than 2% in February 2022 to 4.5% a year later, putting it in close contention with the euro, which accounts for 6% of the total. The gains reflect greater use of China's currency to facilitate trade with Russia and the rising cost of dollar financing. The US Federal Reserve has raised rates nine times since 2022, while the People's Bank of China has cut its benchmark loan prime rate twice over the same period.

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Brookfield Defaults on $161 Million Mortgage for DC Office Buildings Amid Remote Work Rise.

Brookfield has defaulted on a $161 million mortgage for a dozen office buildings, mostly in the Washington DC area, as borrowing costs surge and office occupancy continues to take a hit from the rise in remote work. This is part of a worldwide phenomenon, with other giants like Blackstone and WeWork also defaulting on certain office properties. While Brookfield claims that 95% of what they own are still Trophy Class A buildings, cracks under the surface are being watched as the commercial real estate market is closely monitored.

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Morgan Stanley Predicts 10-Year Treasury Yield to Reach 3.15% Amid Banking Tension and Trade Restrictions.

Morgan Stanley predicts that the yield on 10-year treasuries will be closer to 3.15% by the end of the year, but notes that there is still tension related to liquidity within the banking system. The dependence on the Federal Reserve's facilities and borrowing programs suggests that banking challenges are not yet behind us. Additionally, the tightening of financial conditions due to restricted trade supply has yet to be fully played out.

🔗 Source

Argentina Central Bank Raises Interest Rate to 60% to Stabilize Peso.

The Central Bank of Argentina has raised its benchmark interest rate to 60% in an attempt to stabilize the country's currency, the peso, which has lost more than half of its value against the US dollar this year. The move comes after the government announced new austerity measures, including a reduction in the number of government ministries and the imposition of export taxes on some goods. The country is currently in the midst of an economic crisis, with high inflation and a large budget deficit.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Quantitative Model Output Report

* PPP = Purchasing Power Preservation

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Created by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

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Bank of Japan's Potential Shift in Monetary Policy Could Bring Trillions Back to Japan, Causing Global Market Volatility.

The Bank of Japan's potential shift in monetary policy could bring trillions of dollars back to Japan, potentially causing volatility in global markets. Japanese investors have invested virtually everywhere, from government bonds to risky loans in the US, and are the single biggest foreign holders of US treasuries. If the BOJ tightens monetary policy, bond yields from the US and Europe could rise, and governments may have to find new investors for their debt. The potential impact on the global economy is uncertain, but investors are nervous about the potential for volatility.

🔗 Source

BlackRock Predicts Slower Economic Growth and Uptick in Default Cycle.

Neeraj Seth, head of Asian Credit at BlackRock, believes that the US Federal Reserve has the option to hike interest rates one more time, but whether it will depend on data. He also notes that premature cuts will be a challenge and does not expect to see an aggressive cost-cutting cycle. The banking sector is experiencing interest rate risk, but it is not a broad-based credit issue. Seth recommends investing in the front end of the curve and investment-grade credit, as well as building towards quality in high yield. He believes this combination will provide a reasonable level of risk in a portfolio. Overall, he predicts slower economic growth and an uptick in the default cycle.

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Troubling Times May Lay Ahead for Banks.

Danny Moses, a well-known investor, warns that deposit losses may not be the biggest issue facing banks and that there may be bigger trouble ahead. He believes that there will be a shift from the debt obsession to what's going on in the economy and that banks will need to stabilize their margins to grow. Moses is concerned about the possibility of rate cuts being priced in September, which could lead to lower S&P earnings and overvalued markets. He also emphasizes the importance of credit and the ability of companies to get refinanced.

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Bloomberg Strategist Predicts Gold to Break $2,000 as Stock Market Risks Deflation.

Mike McClone of Bloomberg predicts that gold will continue to rise and break the $2,000 an ounce level due to the stock market potentially rolling over and deflationary trends. He believes that the Federal Reserve will pivot when the market makes them, and the number one thing that will make them pivot is the stock market going down. McClone also notes that crude oil is in an enduring bear market that is tilting back towards that bear market aggressively, and he predicts that it will go towards $40. He advises investors to buy gold through ETFs, as they are an easy way to express those views and investments.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

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Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

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Finland Joins NATO, Russia's Response Uncertain.

Finland has become the 31st member of NATO, abandoning its neutrality to join the world's biggest military alliance. President Anisto said that the era of non-military alliances had come to an end and a new era begins. However, he stressed that Finland's foreign policy will not change and the country will still pursue peace and stability. The move was prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The question now is how Russia will respond.

🔗 Source

Kazushige Ueda's BOJ Appointment Could Shake Global Financial Markets.

The appointment of economist Kazushige Ueda as the next governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could lead to a shift in the central bank's monetary policy, which could have significant implications for global financial markets. Ueda is known for his skepticism of the BOJ's current policy of aggressive monetary easing, and if appointed, he may push for a more cautious approach. This could lead to a strengthening of the yen and a potential sell-off in Japanese stocks, as well as impacting global markets that have been influenced by the BOJ's policies.

🔗 Source

Bond Yields Could Go Lower Amid Softening US Economy.

Bond yields can go lower, according to Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer. The US economy is softening, and there is good reason for the Fed to pause and eventually start cutting in the second half of the year, which would mean yields go down. Matthews believes that inflation will come down, and the breakout in gold is indicative of people wanting to hedge against the dollar going down.

🔗 Source

Gold May Benefit from Falling Inflation and Interest Rates.

The dollar has been down for four out of the last five weeks, U.S. GDP numbers have been revised down, and rising consumer prices are slowing, all of which may continue to be a tailwind for gold. Gold was up over 8.5% in March, the best month since July 2020, and is up over 9.25% for the year. While gold is considered an inflation hedge, falling inflation data has yet to push gold significantly lower, partially because interest rates are also falling. Gold typically rallies when the Fed is cutting rates, which the market currently has priced in at a reasonably high probability starting this June.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

Share Conscious Capital Advisor Research

Last Week’s Market Performance Heatmap

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OPEC+ Members Announce Voluntary Oil Output Cuts to Support Prices and Balance Market.

OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have announced voluntary oil output cuts in an effort to support oil prices and balance the market. The cuts will begin in May and continue through July, with Saudi Arabia taking the largest reduction of 1 million barrels per day. The move comes as global oil demand remains weak.

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Change is Coming - Xi Jinping Prepares China for War with US, Says Foreign Affairs Report.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly told his military commanders to prepare for war, according to a report in Foreign Affairs. The report suggests that Xi is seeking to strengthen China's military capabilities and is preparing for a potential conflict with the US. The move comes amid rising tensions between the two countries over issues such as trade, technology, and human rights. The report argues that the US needs to take China's military buildup seriously and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter it.

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China and Brazil Strike Deal to Ditch Dollar for Trade.

China and Brazil have agreed to use their own currencies instead of the US dollar in bilateral trade transactions. The move is aimed at reducing their dependence on the US dollar and increasing trade between the two countries. The agreement was signed during a virtual meeting between the two countries' central bank governors.

🔗 Source

US Money Supply Falling at Fastest Rate Since 1930s.

The US money supply is falling at the fastest rate since the 1930s, according to data from the Federal Reserve. This is due to a decrease in the amount of money being created by the central bank, as well as a decrease in the amount of money being lent by commercial banks. The decrease in the money supply could lead to a decrease in economic activity and potentially a recession.

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G7 Agrees to Implement Common Crypto Regulations by 2023 in Hiroshima Meeting.

The G7 finance ministers and central bank governors have agreed to work towards implementing common regulations for cryptocurrencies by 2023. The decision was made during a meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, where the officials discussed the potential risks and benefits of digital currencies. The G7 countries include the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The move towards regulation is seen as a way to prevent money laundering and other illegal activities associated with cryptocurrencies.

🔗 Source

Curated by Joseph Lu, CFA®

Joseph is the founder and managing director of Conscious Capital Advisors, and a CFA® Charterholder.

🔗 Connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter.

🔗 Invest with us.

Have a question about what we shared? Email us at info@consciouscapital.pro.

Do not reply to this email with any service requests, contact us for support if needed.

The information presented in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or recommendation for any specific security, product, service, or investment strategy.

Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation you may read here.